2016 MILLENNIAL MEMO (February 3, 2016)
And we’re off! Next stop, New Hampshire, the highest student debt per graduate state in the country. We’ll keep an eye on how the candidates are talking about the issue and if candidates unveil new plans to confront student debt. In the meantime, share Millennial Memo with your colleagues and friends, and sign up for updates here.
BREAKING DOWN THE IOWA YOUTH VOTE: According to New York Times’ entrance polls, 18 percent of Democratic and 12 percent of Republican caucus-goers were between the ages of 17 and 29. Young Democratic caucus-goers supported Sanders 84 percent to Clinton’s 14 percent and O’Malley’s 2 percent. Young Republican caucus-goers supported Cruz 26 percent to Rubio’s 23 percent, Trump’s 20 percent, Paul’s 14 percent, Carson’s 11 percent, and Bush’s 1 percent. (CIRCLE, 2/2/2016)
SANDERS’ YOUTH SUPPORT OUTPERFORMS OBAMA 08: With the support of 84 percent of 17-29 year-old caucus-goers, Sanders’ secured “an even bigger slice of the Iowa youth vote than a senator from Illinois named Barack Obama took back in 2008 (he got 57 percent).” (The Huffington Post, 2/2/2016)
GOP SEES BIGGEST YOUTH TURNOUT IN MODERN IA CAUCUS HISTORY: 22,415 Iowans between the ages of 17 and 29 participated in the GOP caucuses — up more than 22 percent from the 18,338 young GOP caucus-goers who showed up in 2012. (CIRCLE, 2/2/2016)
WATCH THIS SPACE: With young voters up for grabs in a major way, look for more candidates to put the issues they care about front and center in their sales pitch.
NH YOUTH VOTE PRIMER: With young voters playing a pivotal role in this week’s Iowa caucuses, our friends at CIRCLE put together this primer looking at youth primary voting trends in New Hampshire: “Existing estimates suggest that New Hampshire youth are some of the most engaged in the nation when it comes to primary politics, which isn’t surprising given the high-profile political events and media coverage in the state, as well as opportunities to become engaged in campaigns and nonpartisan mobilization. Past primary results suggest that NH youth have often supported runners-up over what might be described as more moderate candidates who win the contests. Young Democratic primary voters have a history of supporting candidates with some grassroots momentum. In 2004, youth split their support between Governor Dean and Senator Kerry and, in 2008, voters aged 18-24 specifically threw a great deal of support behind then-Senator Obama (60%), while those aged 25-29 split their support between Senators Obama and Clinton. Young Republican primary voters in New Hampshire have a record of support for candidates of varying ideologies. In 2012, they were most likely to support Representative Paul (46%). In the 2008 Republican primary, Senator McCain received more support from young voters (27% of 18-24 year olds and 37% of 25-29) than any other Republican candidate, despite nearly all major candidates received double-digit support from youth. In the past three presidential cycles, margins of victory in the New Hampshire presidential primaries as a whole have been rather close. In two of these years, the 2004 Democratic primary and both 2008 primaries, the number of youth votes was larger than the margin of victory, suggesting that strong youth support for one candidate would not only make the race competitive, but potentially be a key to victory.”
MEASURING UP [GRANITE STATE] MILLENNIALS: A new UMass Lowell poll of NH primary voters finds that Sanders might perform even better with Millennials in the Granite State than he did with young voters in Iowa. The poll finds NH Millennial primary voters supporting Sanders 91 percent to Clinton’s 6 percent. As for the Republican primary, the same poll finds Donald Trump leading with the support of 41 percent of NH Millennial GOP voters. Succeeding Trump is Rubio at 18 percent, 13 percent for Paul, and 12 percent for Cruz.
FMR. NH GOV. SUNUNU USES TRUMP UNIVERSITY TO PAINT THE DONALD AS A “LOSER”: “‘There were two winners last night — one was Cruz, and one was Rubio — and there was one loser last night, that was Trump,’ Mr. Sununu, the New Hampshire governor in the 1980s who later served as White House chief of staff under President George Bush, said in a telephone interview.… ‘In New Hampshire,… I still think about half the voters are undecided or prepared to change their mind. I think Trump’s loss will remind people that the guy has a history of losses.’ From there, he appeared to read off line items from an opposition research file, talking about Mr. Trump’s bankruptcies in his business and the difficulties encountered by Trump University. ‘There is no longer Trump Vodka,’ Mr. Sununu continued, also mentioning ‘Trump fragrances’ and ‘three magazines that Mr. Trump put his name on.’ Mr. Trump has repeatedly denounced Mr. Sununu’s criticism. But the line of attack, aimed squarely at Mr. Trump’s business history, is a fresh provocation as the candidate heads into a state where his lead in polls was in double digits just before the Iowa caucuses, and where he will need a victory to propel him toward the Republican nomination. (The New York Times, 2/2/2016)
NEW POLL FINDS STUDENT DEBT IS A BARRIER TO MILLENNIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP: The recent poll from Young Invincibles found that a majority of Millennials (51%) either own a business or organization, are planning to start a business, or would like to but do not currently have plans to do so. However, nearly half (48 percent) of millennials paying off student debt who currently own or have plans to own a business say their student loan payments have impacted their ability to start a business. And nearly 4 in 10 (38 percent) millennials who are interested in opening a business but have no current plans to do so say their student loan payments affect their ability to start a business.
AND IT IS SOMETHING CANDIDATES ARE HEARING ABOUT FROM VOTERS: “Clinton stopped in at a bowling alley… owned by Bryce Smith, a 23-year-old she met on her first visit to the state as a 2016 candidate. Mr. Smith was among five small-business owners whom Mrs. Clinton spoke to at a round table in Norwalk in April, part of her first swing in the state that will hold its caucuses on Monday. Mr. Smith lamented to Mrs. Clinton that he could not afford to pay off his college loans and pursue his dream of owning a bowling alley, and the visit turned him into something of a local celebrity. ‘I went for education in college so I could teach, but I fell in love with bowling,’ Mr. Smith explained to Mrs. Clinton in their first discussion. ‘So that’s my biggest thing, is the barrier of entry and financing.’ Mrs. Clinton lit up as she recalled the period in her campaign when she wanted to hear directly from voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. ‘We all know about the student loan debt, but I’ve never heard anyone so persuasively link it to the slowdown in business startups,’ she said. ‘You’ve given me an insight that nobody else has,’ Mrs. Clinton said to Mr. Smith, ‘and I’m grateful to you.’” (The New York Times, 1/27/2016)
SENATE SPECIAL (NC): ROSS ATTACKS BURR ON STUDENT LOAN RECORD: “Democratic frontrunner Deborah Ross, a former state representative,… said she would also prioritize education. ‘College should be affordable and accessible, and student loans can’t put college students in so much debt that they can’t get on with their lives when they graduate,’ she said. ‘And Richard Burr has a horrible record on student loan issues.’ (The Daily Tar Heel, 1/31/2016)
DEAN’S LIST READS:
More Latinos Are Going to College, But In Small Number of Schools, NBC News, Brian Latimer
Because those cash-strapped Millennials are so savvy… Emerson student could face disciplinary action after renting out his dorm room on Airbnb, Boston Globe, Amanda Hoover
Education Dept. Suspends Student-Aid Eligibility for Dozens of For-Profit Programs, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Courtney Kueppers